Gay Marriage, State by State: A Tipping Point?

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference and Social Science

A "tipping point": As gay rights become more accepted in a state, more gay people come out of the closet. And once straight people realize how many of their friends and relatives are gay, they're more likely to be supportive of gay rights. Recall that the average American knows something like 700 people. So if 5% of your friends and acquaintances are gay, that's 35 people you know--if they come out and let you know they're gay. Even accounting for variation in social networks--some people know 100 gay people, others may only know 10--there's the real potential for increased awareness leading to increased acceptance.
(Read More) from Andrew Gelman @ FiveThirtyEight, a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University.